Balancing Greenhouse Gas Budgets

Description

Balancing Greenhouse Gas Budgets: Accounting for Natural and Anthropogenic Flows of CO2 and other Trace Gases provides a synthesis of greenhouse gas budgeting activities across the world. Organized in four sections, including background, methods, case studies and opportunities, it is an interdisciplinary book covering both science and policy. All environments are covered, from terrestrial to ocean, along with atmospheric processes using models, inventories and observations to give a complete overview of greenhouse gas accounting. Perspectives presented give readers the tools necessary to understand budget activities, think critically, and use the framework to carry out initiatives.

Written by a combination of experts across career stages, presenting an integrated perspective for graduate students and professionals alike
Includes sections authored by those involved in both early and later IPCC assessments
Provides an interdisciplinary resource that spans many topics and methodologies in oceanic, land and atmospheric processes

Front Cover 2
Balancing Greenhouse Gas Budgets: Accounting for Natural and Anthropogenic Flows of CO2 and other Trace Gases 5
Copyright 6
Dedication 7
Contents 9
Contributors 17
Foreword 23
Preface 25
Acknowledgments 27
Section A: Background 29
- Chapter 1: Balancing greenhouse gas sources and sinks: Inventories, budgets, and climate policy 31
  - 1. The human perturbation of the carbon cycle and other biogeochemical cycles 31
  - 2. Inventories of anthropogenic GHG: The foundation of the Kyoto protocol and the Paris agreement 32
  - 3. GHG budgets: Constraining GHG sources and sinks 37
  - 4. Supporting the global stocktake and the net-zero emissions policy goals 40

Front Cover 2
Balancing Greenhouse Gas Budgets: Accounting for Natural and Anthropogenic Flows of CO2 and other Trace Gases 5
Copyright 6
Dedication 7
Contents 9
Contributors 17
Foreword 23
Preface 25
Acknowledgments 27
Section A: Background 29
- Chapter 1: Balancing greenhouse gas sources and sinks: Inventories, budgets, and climate policy 31
  - 1. The human perturbation of the carbon cycle and other biogeochemical cycles 31
  - 2. Inventories of anthropogenic GHG: The foundation of the Kyoto protocol and the Paris agreement 32
  - 3. GHG budgets: Constraining GHG sources and sinks 37
  - 4. Supporting the global stocktake and the net-zero emissions policy goals 40
  - 5. A new generation of technologies and observations to constrain global and regional GHG budgets 42
  - 6. Extending the carbon budget and accounting frameworks to meet broader policy information needs 46
  - References 50
  - Acknowledgment 50
- Section B: Methods 57
  - Chapter 2: CO2 emissions from energy systems and industrial processes: Inventories from data- and proxy-driven approaches 59
    - 1. Introduction 59
    - 2. Overview of inventory approaches 62
      - 2.1. Emission estimation from energy statistics 62
      - 2.2. Activity data 65
      - 2.4. Spatial and temporal emission disaggregation 67
      - 2.3. Emission factors 67
      - 2.5. Other approaches 70
    - 3. Uncertainty 71
      - 3.1. Emission estimation 71
        
        3.1.1. Uncertainty in AD 73
        
        3.1.2. Uncertainty in EF 74
      - 3.2. Spatial and temporal modeling 74
      - 3.3. Other sources of uncertainty 75
    - 4. Examples of emission estimates and products 75
      - 4.1. IEA 75
      - 4.3. CDIAC-FF 76
      - 4.2. bp 76
      - 4.4. EDGAR 77
      - 4.6. GCP gridded fossil emissions dataset 78
      - 4.5. Global carbon project 78
    - References 80
    - 5. Summary 80
    - Further reading 84
  - Chapter 3: Bottom-up approaches for estimating terrestrial GHG budgets: Bookkeeping, process-based modeling, and data-dri ... 87
    - 1. Introduction to bottom-up (BU) approaches 87
      - 1.1. Definitions and discrepancies 91
    - 2. Bottom-up methodologies 92
      - 2.1. Stock-change versus flux-based accounting 92
      - 2.2. Bookkeeping methodology 94
      - 2.3. Process-based methodology 98
      - 2.4. Data-driven methodologies 102
    - 3. Relevance to Stock-Change and flux-based accounting 104
      - 3.1. Uncertainties 105
      - 3.2. Comparisons between approaches 106
    - References 106
    - 4. Conclusions 106
  - Chapter 4: Top-down approaches 115
    - 1. Introduction 115
    - 2. Measurements of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere 117
      - 2.1. Ground-based measurements 117
      - 2.2. Satellite measurements 119
    - 3. Atmospheric modeling 123
      - 3.1. Modeling atmospheric transport and chemistry 123
      - 3.2. Types of atmospheric transport models 125
      - 3.3. Relating surface fluxes to atmospheric mixing ratios 126
    - 4. Inversion concepts 128
      - 4.1. Bayes theorem and its application to optimizing fluxes 128
      - 4.2. Introduction to different optimization methods 131
        
        4.2.1. Kalman filters 132
        
        4.2.2. Gradient methods 133
        
        4.2.3. Ensemble methods 134
        
        4.2.3.1. Markov chain Monte Carlo 134
        
        4.2.3.2. Ensemble Kalman filter 136
        
        4.3. Ensembles for estimating the posterior uncertainty 138
        
        4.4. Estimating prior flux and observation uncertainties 139
        
        4.4.1. Prior error covariance 139
        
        4.4.2. Observation error covariance 140
        
        4.4.3. Assessing choices for the error covariance matrices 142
        
        4.5. Boundary conditions 143
      - 5. Application to land biosphere CO2 fluxes (NEE) 145
      - 6. Application to fossil fuel emissions of CO2 148
      - 7. Application to CH4 fluxes 154
      - 8. Application to other GHG fluxes 158
      - 9. Sources of error 160
        
        9.1. Transport errors 160
        
        9.2. Aggregation errors 163
      - 10. Validation of flux estimates from inversions 165
      - 11. Summary and conclusions 167
      - References 168
      - Acknowledgments 168
    - Section C: Case Studies 185
      - Chapter 5: Current knowledge and uncertainties associated with the Arctic greenhouse gas budget 187
        
        1. Introduction and background: Arctic ecosystems 187
        
        2. Methodologies 190
        
        2.1. Components of the greenhouse gas budget of terrestrial arctic ecosystems 190
        
        2.2. Methodologies for flux estimation in the Arctic 191
        
        2.2.1. Chamber measurements and incubation studies in arctic terrestrial environments 191
        
        2.2.2. Arctic micrometeorological eddy covariance measurements in terrestrial ecosystems 193
        
        2.2.3. Concentration measurements from aircraft and tall towers 194
        
        2.2.4. Arctic freshwater/fluvial flux (DOC/DIC/POC) measurements 197
        
        2.2.5. Arctic marine/oceanic fluxes 199
        
        2.3. Top-down and bottom-up methods for estimating carbon fluxes in the Arctic 200
        
        2.4. Terrestrial ecosystem and land surface models in the Arctic 201
        
        2.5. Review of Arctic GHG estimates by sector and associated key uncertainties 204
        
        2.5.1. Lateral flow: Rivers and streams 209
        
        2.5.2. Nitrous oxide 210
        
        3. Uncertainty and reducing uncertainty 211
        
        4. Perspective and future opportunities 212
        
        4.1. The current status of the GHG budget of the arctic terrestrial and marine environments 212
        
        4.2. Future perspectives: Improving the Arctic GHG budget 213
        
        References 214
        
        Acknowledgments 214
        
        Chapter 6: Boreal forests 231
        
        1. Carbon in boreal forests 231
        
        1.1. The major components of the boreal forest carbon budget 233
        
        2. Estimating carbon stocks and fluxes in boreal forests 234
        
        2.1. Sampling boreal forest carbon stocks 236
        
        2.2. Sampling boreal ecosystem carbon fluxes 238
        
        2.3. Carbon emissions from wildfire 238
        
        2.4. Carbon in the aquatic system 239
        
        3. Carbon accounting in boreal forests 240
        
        3.1. National forest inventories 241
        
        3.2. Carbon in harvested wood products 242
        
        3.3. Managed vs unmanaged forest lands 243
        
        3.4. The role of remote sensing in boreal forest inventories 244
        
        4. Regional-scale modeling 245
        
        5. Synthesis 246
        
        Acknowledgments 249
        
        References 249
        
        Chapter 7: State of science in carbon budget assessments for temperate forests and grasslands 265
        
        1. Introduction and background 265
        
        2. Methodologies for flux estimations in temperate regions 267
        
        2.1. Net carbon flux estimations 267
        
        2.1.1. Carbon stock changes 267
        
        2.1.2. Upscaling of eddy covariance flux measurements 268
        
        2.1.3. Terrestrial biosphere models 269
        
        2.1.4. Atmospheric inversions 270
        
        2.2. Components of the carbon budget in temperate regions 271
        
        2.2.1. Land-use changes and regrowth 272
        
        2.2.2. Fluvial flux 276
        
        2.2.3. CO2 evasion from river and lake 279
        
        2.2.4. Fire emissions 279
        
        2.2.5. Biogenic volatile organic compounds 280
        
        3. Review of the carbon budget of temperate forests and grasslands 280
        
        3.1. Adjustments for the carbon budget 281
        
        3.2. Carbon budget assessment 283
        
        4. Uncertainties in carbon fluxes 285
        
        4.1. Reliability and uncertainty in observational methods 286
        
        4.2. Uncertainty in components of the temperate carbon budget 289
        
        5. Perspective and future opportunities for policy decision-making 290
        
        5.1. Progress over past decades 290
        
        5.2. Future perspective 291
        
        5.3. Toward policy-driven carbon budgets 291
        
        References 292
        
        Chapter 8: Tropical ecosystem greenhouse gas accounting 299
        
        1. Introduction and background: Tropical ecosystems 299
        
        1.1. General description 299
        
        1.2. Understanding changes in carbon cycling and storage 300
        
        2. GHG budget in the tropics 301
        
        2.1. Components of the greenhouse gas budget tropical ecosystems 301
        
        2.2. Methodologies for flux estimation in the tropics 303
        
        2.2.1. Chamber measurements in tropical terrestrial environments 303
        
        2.2.2. Micrometeorological eddy covariance measurements in terrestrial ecosystems 304
        
        2.2.3. Concentration measurements from aircraft and tall towers 305
        
        2.2.4. Freshwater/fluvial flux (DOC/DIC/POC) measurements 307
        
        2.3. Top-down and bottom-up methods for estimating carbon fluxes in the tropics (modeling) 311
        
        2.4. Terrestrial ecosystem and land surface processes in the tropics 313
        
        2.5. GHG emissions from tropical forest deforestation and degradation 316
        
        2.6. Review of tropical GHG estimates by sector 317
        
        3. Uncertainty and reducing uncertainty 321
        
        4. Perspective and future opportunities 324
        
        References 326
        
        Acknowledgments 326
        
        Chapter 9: Semiarid ecosystems 339
        
        1. Introduction and background: Global drylands and semiarid ecosystems 339
        
        1.1. Ecology 340
        
        1.2. Threats 341
        
        2. Methodologies 342
        
        2.1. Components of the greenhouse gas budget of semiarid ecosystems 342
        
        2.2. In situ based methodologies for flux estimation in semiarid ecosystems 344
        
        2.3. Atmospheric inversion monitoring of semiarid ecosystems 346
        
        2.4. Remote sensing 347
        
        2.5. Land surface modeling of semiarid ecosystems 350
        
        2.6. Soil erosion 351
        
        3. Future perspectives 354
        
        Acknowledgment 355
        
        References 355
        
        Chapter 10: Urban environments and trans-boundary linkages 365
        
        1. From science to policy for urban carbon accounting 365
        
        2. Four carbon accounting approaches for individual cities 367
        
        2.1. Purely territorial carbon accounting approaches 368
        
        2.2. Community-wide trans-boundary infrastructure supply-chain carbon footprinting approaches 376
        
        2.3. Consumption-based carbon footprinting approaches 386
        
        2.4. Total community-wide carbon footprinting 390
        
        3. Accounting biogenic carbon from land use and land-use change in individual cities 391
        
        4. From individual cities to initiatives for all urban areas carbon accounting 394
        
        References 398
        
        Chapter 11: Agricultural systems 403
        
        1. Introduction 403
        
        2. Carbon stocks, flows, and emissions in agricultural systems 407
        
        2.1. Cropping systems 407
        
        2.2. Livestock systems 409
        
        2.3. Lateral transport and supply chains 411
        
        3. Methodologies 411
        
        3.1. Inventories of agricultural soil C stock changes, N2O and CH4 emissions 412
        
        3.2. Inventories of emissions from livestock systems 415
        
        3.3. Lateral transport and supply chains 415
        
        3.4. Top-down inversion methods 417
        
        4. Improving regional GHG inventories for agriculture 418
        
        5. Conclusions 420
        
        Acknowledgments 421
        
        References 421
        
        Chapter 12: Greenhouse gas balances in coastal ecosystems: Current challenges in ``blue carbon´´ estimation and significa ... 431
        
        1. Background 431
        
        2. What limits traditional AFOLU estimation approaches in coastal ecosystems? 432
        
        3. IPCC guidelines for national-scale estimation of coastal wetland carbon 435
        
        4. Improving application of the IPCC NGGI guidelines in the United States 440
        
        5. Implications for the scale of GHG estimation 447
        
        6. Implications for carbon cycle science on coastlines 449
        
        7. Final thoughts 449
        
        Acknowledgments 450
        
        References 450
        
        Chapter 13: Ocean systems 455
        
        1. Summary 455
        
        2. The ocean as a sink/source of GHGs to the atmosphere 456
        
        3. Preindustrial (or natural) carbon budget based on inverse estimates 459
        
        4. Anthropogenic perturbations and the contemporary global carbon sink 462
        
        5. Regional marine carbon sink 466
        
        6. Storage of anthropogenic carbon 469
        
        7. Variability of the ocean GHG uptake 470
        
        8. Future outlook 473
        
        References 475
        
        Section D: Forward Looking 481
        
        Chapter 14: Applications of top-down methods to anthropogenic GHG emission estimation 483
        
        1. Introduction 484
        
        2. Using inverse estimates of non-CO2 GHG emissions in national reporting 484
        
        3. Methane emissions detection at facility and basin scale 486
        
        4. Large point source emission monitoring using satellite observations 491
        
        5. Precision and sampling requirements for future satellite observations 493
        
        6. Developing global high-resolution transport modeling capability for analysis of the satellite and ground-based observa ... 495
        
        7. Developing high-resolution emission inventories for inverse modeling 499
        
        8. Summary 502
        
        References 503
        
        Chapter 15: Earth system perspective 511
        
        1. Introduction and background: What is an earth system model? 511
        
        2. Carbon cycle modeling in the context of earth system models 513
        
        3. Data assimilation in earth system models 516
        
        3.1. Data assimilation related to numerical weather prediction 517
        
        3.2. Data assimilation related to land and ocean carbon cycle 517
        
        3.3. Data assimilation related to atmospheric carbon observations 518
        
        4. Future direction for carbon cycle science, earth system modeling, and DA applications 519
        
        References 520
        
        Index 525
        
        Back Cover 533

Accounting for Natural and Anthropogenic Flows of CO2 and other Trace Gases

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